Winter Markets

  • Oil:Close to close: down at $ 112.2/bbl

-       Why?

  • Brent 1st nearby prices rose to 113.27 $/b yesterday but finally closed below Friday's settlement. Prices didn't react much neither to weak Chinese and Eurozone PMIs, nor to the unexpected rebound in the US ISM index. Gasoline prices dropped 17.7 $/b with the 1st nearby rolling from Oct12 to Nov12 contract. Watch the support at 2.895 $/g (260-day average).
  • Once again there were pretty good news on ramping crude oil supply. According to the Iraqi oil ministry, Iraq oil exports rose in September from 2.656 to 2.6 Mb/d, a three-decades high, as northern exports were boosted by the deal between the central government and the Kurdistan autonomous region. Russian oil output edged up 0.3% in September to a new post-Soviet high of 10.41 Mb/d (+30 kb/d).
  • The mood is turning (again) darker on financial market this morning with doubts about Spain and Greece increasing again, and should push oil prices down. Supports lies at 111.7, 110.9 and 109.9 (200-day moving average). If the 200-day average was broken, we would likely head to 108.2. Resistances are 112.6/8 and 113.3/5. These levels were unbroken on the last attempts on Friday and Monday. If a third attempt was to be successful, 116.8 would be reachable. Today the focus is mainly on the API report this evening as the macroeconomic agenda is empty. Note also that there is currently an area of low pressure in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, with 60% chances of turning into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.